Analysis of Individual Strategy Elements

Collecting data and calculating metrics is only half the job. The true value of self-analysis emerges when you use the insights gained to identify systematic patterns and further improve your trading.

1) Trade Analysis by Time

Gather profitability statistics by trading hours and days of the week. The easiest way to do this is by using the “Trading Journal” file, the “Time Analysis” tab. It automatically pulls data from your trades and calculates key metrics by day and hour of entry.

What the analysis may reveal:

• Morning trades are more profitable than evening ones (fatigue at end of day)

• Mondays are consistently worse than other days (harder to read the market after weekends)

• Certain hours produce more false signals (low liquidity).

Adjustment: focus your trading on the most profitable periods; avoid or reduce risk during problematic times.

2) Trade Analysis by Setup Types

Classify trades by entry type (bounce from level, breakout, trend entry, etc.) and compare performance.

What the analysis may reveal:

• Bounces from levels have a 65% win rate, breakouts only 40%

• Counter-trend trades lead to consistent losses

• Trades with volume confirmation are twice as profitable as those without.

Adjustment: Increase your share of strong setups and drop or downsize weak ones.

3) Trade Analysis by Instruments

If you trade multiple pairs, compare performance across them.

What the analysis may reveal:

• BTC/USDT: win rate 58%, profit factor 2.1

• Altcoins: win rate 42%, profit factor 1.1.

Adjustment: Focus on instruments you understand best or invest time learning about weaker performers before trading them actively.

4) Trade Analysis by Emotional State

• When entering a trade
  Compare the trade quality category (A/B/C/D) with your emotional state at entry.
  What the analysis may reveal:

• Trades in a “frustrated” or “excited” state are C or D trades 80% of the time

• Trades made when feeling “uncertain” perform worse

• Trades after a loss are often impulsive and unprofitable. 
  Adjustment:

• Implement a rule: 15-minute break after a losing trade

• Avoid trading in “frustrated” or “excited” states

• If your confidence in a setup is below 3/5 — skip it.

• After winning/losing streaks
  Analyze your behavior after a series of wins or losses.
  What the analysis may reveal:

• After 3+ winning trades, you increase risk (euphoria)

• After 2+ losses, you trade more frequently (revenge trading)

• In profitable days, trade quality declines by end of session (complacency) 
  Adjustment:

• Keep position size fixed regardless of streaks

• 3-loss rule: 30-minute break after 3 consecutive losses

• Cap number of trades — e.g. max 20 per day regardless of results.

5) Optimal Position Sizing Analysis

Part of optimizing your risk management. Compare results at different risk levels.

What the analysis may reveal:

• 0.5% risk: win rate 58%, profit factor 2.0

• 1% risk: win rate 52%, profit factor 1.6

• 1% risk: win rate 45%, profit factor 1.2

Conclusion: Increasing size may lead to more aggressive or anxious trading, lowering decision quality.

Adjustment: Your optimal risk level is 0.5% per trade. Larger sizes hurt discipline.

6) Stop-Loss Placement Analysis

Also part of risk management optimization. Review the ratio of stop-out trades where price later moved in your favor.

• If 60%+ of stopped trades later go your way:

• Stops are too tight

• Normal volatility isn’t accounted for
  Adjustment: Increase stop distance by 20–30%  

• If fewer than 20% of stops are hit:

• Stops may be too wide

• You may be exiting manually too early
  Adjustment: Review risk/reward ratios — wider stops must be paired with wider targets.

Periodic Strategy Review

Monthly optimization checklist:

• 1. Review key metrics:

• Is win rate in your target range?

• Has profit factor decreased?

• Is drawdown within acceptable limits?

• 2. Analyze market changes:

• Has average volatility changed?

• Are new price patterns emerging?

• Have trading sessions shifted (e.g., daylight saving time)?

• 3. Assess personal changes:

• Is your emotional control improving?

• Are you reading charts better?

• Any new habits (positive or negative)?

• 4. Adjust rules if needed:

• Make only gradual changes (1–2 parameters at a time)

• Test changes over at least 20–30 trades

• Document reasons for each change

Over-optimization warning:

Avoid tweaking the strategy after every losing streak. Give the system time — at least 100 trades — before making major changes. Frequent adjustments prevent statistical clarity and real insight.

Planning Trading Activity

a) Setting Realistic Goals

Beginners often lack historical data, making goal setting abstract. Start conservatively:

First 3 months: goal is to avoid losing your deposit and collect stats. Aim for +2–5% monthly.

After 50+ trades: review your actual results and set goals 20–30% above average — without increasing risk.

Realistic targets come from your own data, not others’ claims.

Example:

• Avg. monthly profit (last 3 months): 8%

• Max drawdown: 12%

• Realistic next-month goal: 6–10% profit

• Unrealistic goal: 20% — 2× above average, requires increased risk, likely leads to losses.

b) Planning Trading Hours

If data shows you perform best in the first 2–3 hours:

• Schedule main trading for this period

• Limit or skip less effective hours

• Use free time for analysis and learning.

Checklist: Weekly Self-Review

1. Calculate weekly metrics (win rate, profit factor, total P&L)

2. Classify all trades (A/B/C/D)

3. Identify top 2–3 recurring mistakes

4. Assign specific actions to fix each mistake

5. Check risk rules: position sizing, daily limits

6. Assess emotional state: any trades made in poor condition?

7. Note 1–2 things you did well (positive reinforcement)

8. Plan 1–2 concrete improvements for next week

9. Review failed trades — what would you do differently?

10. Set a realistic goal for the upcoming week

Common Mistakes in Strategy Adjustment

1. Changing rules after every losing streak (insufficient sample size)

2. Overfitting to historical data

3. Adjusting too many parameters at once (can’t tell what worked)

4. Ignoring emotional patterns, focusing only on technicals

5. Setting goals based on peak performance, not averages

6. Refusing to adjust due to stubbornness despite clear data issues

7. Comparing yourself to other traders instead of tracking your own progress

8. Stopping journaling after reaching profitability

9. Adding complexity instead of simplifying

10. Searching for a “perfect” system instead of improving your current one

Systematic Trade Review and Self-Analysis isn't a one-time task — it’s a continuous practice of a professional trader. This process, not “secret indicators” or “magic signals,” separates profitable traders from losing ones. A disciplined trading journal and honest reflection transform random trades into a systematic business with predictable outcomes.

Remember: the goal of self-analysis is not self-criticism — it's objective evaluation and constant improvement. Each mistake is a chance to learn. Each winning trade confirms your system works. Journaling may seem boring, but it lays the foundation for long-term success in trading.